With less than eight weeks before Election Day, Donald J. Trump and Hillary Clinton
are locked in a tight contest, with both candidates still struggling to
win the confidence of their respective bases, the latest New York
Times/CBS News poll finds.
Mrs.
Clinton, the Democratic nominee, has the support of 46 percent of
likely voters nationwide, to 44 percent for Mr. Trump, the Republican,
including those who said they were leaning toward a candidate. Looking
more broadly at all registered voters, Mrs. Clinton holds a wider edge,
46 to 41 percent.
In a four-way race, Mr. Trump and Mrs. Clinton are tied at 42 percent each. Gary Johnson,
the Libertarian candidate, has the support of 8 percent of likely
voters, and the Green Party nominee, Jill Stein, takes 4 percent.
The
third-party candidates draw their strongest support from younger
voters. Twenty-six percent of voters ages 18 to 29 say they plan to vote
for Mr. Johnson, and another 10 percent back Ms. Stein. A little more
than one in five political independents say they will vote for one of
the third-party candidates.
Discontent
with the major party candidates is widespread. Among those who say they
intend to vote for Mr. Trump or Mrs. Clinton, slightly more than half
express strong support. The rest say that they harbor reservations about
their candidate, or that they are simply voting to thwart the other
nominee.
Over
all, just 43 percent of likely voters describe themselves as very
enthusiastic about casting a ballot in November. Fifty-one percent of
Mr. Trump’s supporters say they are very enthusiastic about voting; 43
percent of Mrs. Clinton’s supporters say they are very enthusiastic.
The
race has clearly grown tighter in recent weeks. National polling
averages show that Mrs. Clinton’s margin over Mr. Trump has narrowed
from eight points in early August to two points today.
Mrs.
Clinton found herself under attack last week for suggesting that half
of Mr. Trump’s supporters held views that made them “deplorables,” and
for her campaign’s attempts to conceal her pneumonia diagnosis. The
Times/CBS News poll was conducted from Sept. 9 to 13, so many of those
interviewed were aware of the controversies.
Mr.
Trump hired new campaign leadership in mid-August and has been more
disciplined in his public statements. His poll numbers have been
steadily rising.
Mrs.
Clinton continues to outpace Mr. Trump among women, nonwhites and
younger voters, while Mr. Trump leads among whites, 57 to 33 percent.
Among white women, the candidates are virtually tied: 46 percent for Mrs. Clinton and 45 percent for Mr. Trump.
Mrs.
Clinton’s support is notably strong among college graduates,
particularly whites. She leads by 11 points among white likely voters
with a college degree; if polling holds, she would be the first Democrat
in 60 years to win among this group.
This
is the first Times/CBS News poll of the election cycle to include a
measure of likely voters. The nationwide telephone survey reached 1,433
registered voters and has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus
three percentage points. To achieve a sample that reflected the probable
electorate, these voters were weighted by their responses to questions
about voting history, attention to the campaign and likelihood of
voting.
With
Mrs. Clinton sidelined by illness this week, Mr. Trump has vigorously
pressed his case. He promoted a new plan to support working parents on
Tuesday, and released a partial account of his medical status on
Wednesday during a taping of “The Dr. Oz Show.”
Poll
participants expressed ambivalence about the need for more information
on the candidates’ medical histories. For each candidate, just 45
percent of registered voters said they wanted to see more medical
records released. (Questions about Mr. Trump’s and Mrs. Clinton’s
medical records were asked starting on Sunday afternoon, after news
broke that Mrs. Clinton fell ill at a ceremony commemorating the Sept.
11, 2001, attacks.)
Mr.
Johnson’s showing of 8 percent support in this poll will make it
difficult for him to qualify for the first presidential debate, on Sept.
26. Under the rules set by the Commission on Presidential Debates, a
candidate must reach an average of 15 percent support in five major news
media polls, including the Times/CBS News poll. Another poll included
in the average used by the commission, the Washington Post/ABC News
poll, had Mr. Johnson at 9 percent support last week.
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